Know what a heat pump really costs
Free calculators and comparison tools built for US homeowners. Honest installation, operating, and payback estimates — before you call a single contractor.
Heat pump calculators
8 calculators live, more shipping soon. Every estimate is built from real 2026 equipment and install pricing — no email or signup required.
- Heat pump vs. gas furnaceOpen calculator
- Heat pump installation costOpen calculator
- Heat pump running costOpen calculator
- Heat pump sizingOpen calculator
- Heat pump vs. boilerOpen calculator
- Ductless mini-split costOpen calculator
- Heat pump water heater costOpen calculator
- Geothermal vs. air-sourceOpen calculator
How the estimates are built
Every calculator on this site is grounded in the same four public data sources. No AHRI directory scraping, no "proprietary" algorithm, no lead-gen scoring — the math is auditable and the inputs are cited on every tool.
Prices
US Energy Information Administration
National + 4-region residential electricity (Winter Fuels Outlook + Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A), natural gas, propane, and heating oil. National electric averages ~16.8¢/kWh; regions run from ~15.1¢ (South) to ~24.4¢ (Northeast) in winter.
Efficiencies
ENERGY STAR key product criteria
Heat pumps ≥7.8 HSPF2 / ≥15.2 SEER2 (cold-climate ≥8.5 HSPF2 with ≥1.75 COP at 5°F). Furnaces ≥95% AFUE North, ≥90% South. Boilers ≥90% gas. Seasonal COP is derived exactly: HSPF2 ÷ 3.412.
Design temperatures
ASHRAE Std 169
99.6% winter heating design dry-bulb — the industry standard for sizing. Ranges from −15°F (Minneapolis) to +46°F (Miami); sizing calibrated against these values, not a single national assumption.
Install costs
Published 2026 industry ranges
Ducted 2-ton $4.5k–$9k up to 5-ton $8k–$14.5k; ductless single-zone $2.7k–$5.8k, multi-zone $6k–$19k; geothermal $15k–$35k+; heat pump water heater $2.5k–$8k. Synthesized from HomeGuide, This Old House, Angi, and Modernize.
The federal 25C (air-source) and 25D (geothermal) tax credits both expired for property placed in service after Dec 31, 2025. Every calculator shows $0 federal credit for 2026 installs (IRS FS-2025-05 / P.L. 119-21). State and utility rebates may still apply.
How to use the calculators
The tools are designed to answer one specific decision at a time. Start with the one that matches the number you need to put on paper.
- 1
Start with the question
"What will it cost?" → installation cost. "What's the monthly bill?" → running cost. "Should I switch from gas?" → vs. gas furnace. Each tool ignores what's not relevant.
- 2
Enter your actual $/kWh
Your bill's $/kWh (and $/therm if applicable) is the biggest single lever on every operating estimate. The 4-region EIA defaults are a starting point; your real number is 5–20% off the regional average.
- 3
Print or save the estimate
Every result page has a "Print / save this estimate" button. It produces a clean one-page itemized breakdown you can hand to a contractor, compare against a bid, or file for later.
What actually drives the cost
Heat pump projects have two prices — the install and the running bill. Each is dominated by a small number of variables that most quotes and comparison sites don't surface clearly.
Install cost drivers
Why one house is $6k and the next is $16k
- Tonnage — climate sets it, not just sq ft. Minneapolis needs more BTU/hr than Phoenix for the same house.
- Ductwork — reusing existing ducts is free; a whole new duct system adds $2k–$12k. This is the single biggest reason bids diverge.
- Efficiency tier — ENERGY STAR minimum vs a variable-speed inverter adds ~45% to equipment cost; pays back over 10+ years in moderate climates.
- Region + site — coastal metros run 15–30% above national; a tight crawlspace or a panel upgrade adds another 15–30%.
Operating cost drivers
Why the same heat pump costs $800/yr here and $2,000/yr there
- Electricity price — the largest single lever. A Boston kWh is 55% pricier than a Kansas City kWh; that ratio flows straight through to your annual bill.
- Climate — heating demand scales roughly 6× from Miami to Minneapolis; cooling demand scales the opposite way.
- Envelope — a well-insulated home uses 25% less HVAC energy than an average home of the same size. Air-sealing usually pays back faster than a bigger unit.
- Efficiency (COP) — moving from HSPF2 7.8 to 9.0 cuts heating electricity by ~13%. On $1,500/yr of heating, that's ~$200/yr saved.
The rule of thumb worth remembering: at the same delivered BTU, a heat pump beats a 95%-AFUE gas furnace whenever your $/kWh is less than about 0.09 × your $/therm. Below that ratio, gas is cheaper to burn; above it, the heat pump wins on running cost alone.
Why trust our numbers
An independent reference — not a contractor lead-gen site, not affiliated with any brand.
- Residential energy prices from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA Winter Fuels Outlook and Electric Power Monthly)
- Heat pump efficiencies (HSPF2, SEER2, cold-climate COP at 5°F) from ENERGY STAR key product criteria
- Heating design temperatures from ASHRAE Std 169 / ENERGY STAR county lookup
- Install cost ranges from published 2026 industry surveys (HomeGuide, This Old House, Angi) — labeled as estimates, not quotes
- Federal 25C and 25D credits set to $0 for 2026 — both terminated Dec 31, 2025 (IRS FS-2025-05 / P.L. 119-21)
- Independent — no installer network, no lead-gen, every source cited on the Methodology page